The G with some Basics.

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In2ition
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Re: The G with some Basics.

Post by In2ition » Tue Mar 24, 2009 3:40 am

Pretty simple explanation Wharfie. One word as a matter of fact.

Arrogance.

There are a few players that have reached very high ratings who unfortunatley have let it go to their head. They feel that they are the only person who has a full grasp of the game, and they feel the need to force their opinions down the throat of others. They feel they can call anything and they "should" make it because they are that great. I find it amusing to see them fail on ridiculous calls and then try to lay the blame on their partner or claim the ops were bagging. Majority of the high players are very pleasant people. They contribute here, they are happy to dispense advice when it's asked for and they love to get some good games going in an effort to get their ratings even higher and enjoy a challenging game.

I know which players you are referring to Wharfie. Normally i'd be disgusted at seeing someone leave a game early. But in this case i'm actually glad someone said "to hell with an incomplete stat, i'm not sitting here any longer with this fool" That particular player has had it coming for a long time. I can only hope more people adopt the same attitude toward them. There is no place for that kind of arrogance in HW. All it does is leave a bad taste in your mouth at the end of a game, win or lose.

Wharfie there's only a very very small few that behave like that. The only thing i can suggest is to make a mental note of their name, and avoid them.

Best of luck in your games.
Confucious Say : War not determine who is right.... War determine who is left!

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Re: The G with some Basics.

Post by GTO RACER » Wed Mar 25, 2009 8:07 am

Wharfie wrote:The player preaching obviously hasnt ever heard of the "next" call because he seemed to want to cross everytime when the deal was turned down, left his P hanging out to dry often. i don't understand why players cross in the 1st seat when they have nothing, or very very little, is it because they are scared the dealer is bagging, at that level i mean, help me here, because i just don't get it. He hardly succeeded at all. wharfman.
Wharfie this is from a previous post in the thread.


Here's some actual statistical stuff that I have been tracking..

Keep in mind the law of large numbers typically inferences that 1000 is a good cross section of occurance.

Here are the numbers... or STREAK on the last games that I have participated in. These statistics include over 500 deals. Stats are not based on what was done by the players. Stats are based ONLY on the card deals and situations.


PLEASE NOTE: THESE NUMBERS WILL CHANGE AS MORE GAMES ARE PLAYED... THAT'S WHAT RANDOM IS ABOUT... BUT IF GIVEN AN INFINITE AMOUNT OF TIME THERE WILL BE SOME POINT WHERE ALL ACTUALITIES WILL MATCH THE PROBABILITY EXACTLY.

Jacks up 1st Deal of game 36.36% (Even with only 500 deals this is insanely high and 100% greater than the statistical probablity of ANY jack being up on 1st deal)

Jacks up to Leader at 6+ 9.09% (I tracked this one just to appease myself... the deviation is more than acceptable considering probability is normaly 17%)

Stoppable Loners 56.00% (of all taken.... were stoppable with either a lead, trump or normal playing of the hierarchy of the cards) This doesn't mean they were stopped.. but they could have been. This statistic will be radically different when playing with and against safe players. In that case the stoppable loner percent will most likely decrease significantly due to less risk taken in picking a loner hand.

Unstoppable Loners 44.00% Nothing not even the wrath of God was stopping these loners

% Loners/Hands Dealt 22.32% % of all deals where a loner was actually ordered.. being all these game stats are from higher games.. it will be higher than most

% Dealer Picked up Loners Stoppable %53

% Dealer Picked up Loners UnStoppable %47

% Jacks Dealt as Upcard 15.18% Below the probability of 17% of ANY jack

1st Seat Cross 35.71% Regardless of what was called.... based on actual cards in hand 1st and 3rd seat. Next would have Euched regardless of play

1st Seat Next 21.43% Regardless of what was called.... based on actual cards in hand 1st and 3rd seat. Crossing would have E'd regardless of play

1st Seat Dead 15.18% Regardless of what was called.... based on actual cards in hand 1st and 3rd seat. Any order would have E'd

1st Seat Doesn't Matter 27.68% Regardless of what was called.... based on actual cards in hand 1st and 3rd seat. Either Next or Cross would have scored

2nd Seat Cross 46.43%

2nd Seat Next 18.75%

2nd Seat Dead 11.61%

2nd Seat Doesn't Matter 8.93%

% Clubs Dealt Upcard 15.18%

% Diamonds Dealt Upcard 20.54%

% Spades Dealt Upcard 31.25%

% Hearts Dealt Upcard 16.07%

2nd Seat Dealer Passe J 100% CROSS In most cases this will be the weakest part of the 2nd seat hand.. ex. Red Jack turned down by dealer, 2nd seat has opp red and singleton Black. CALL THE BLACK... The statistical odds are in favor of it. This does not mean this will be EVERY instance. But I'd rather a 99.99 percent odd than a .11 odd.

I have more detailed stuff.. but that's just for me.. Since I'm doing the work. More in depth on leads and order based on hand composition. For the instances where i'm on the fence I'd prefer to have statistical probability on my side. Makes me feel better when I euche.

Ok soo what do I get from these numbers? I'll tell you...

1. Unless for score control or it's absolutely obvious blocking is a shot in the dark. But I AM a blocker and I hate it. I've backed off ALOT lately except for score control. ( have the stats on best leads, etc.. but again... i need an edge somewhere don't I?... so i am NOT sharing! lol

2. Next isn't best. Based on the latest streak Crossing is acutally better..... depending on my hand of course.. That is always the biggest factor.

3. I want to be the 1st deal... I want those jacks.. as the game progresses after the first deal the probability of a Jack being turned up will decrease significantly.

4. I will no longer complain when it is 9 to 9 opps deal and they get a Jack. HW doesn't really hate me ... it is way lower in statistical realm the frequency at which this is happening AT LEAST based on my last streak.

5. When my p turns down a J I Will ALWAYS cross the creek even if it is with a singleton 9 unless I have top cards in Next.
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Re: The G with some Basics.

Post by up a crk » Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:23 am

ummmm ok

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Re: The G with some Basics.

Post by Dust In The Wind » Wed Mar 25, 2009 6:11 pm

HHHmmmm, someone has been doing some serious homework and if you don't mind I'm going to study your notes and see if they concur with my general thinking.... I do know one thing out front cards are a game of chance, risks, and probabilities and if you know the odds your risk/chance is less on any given hand and as always there is the chance/risk it will go belly-up sometimes, but if the percentages are there your payoff is larger and in the long run.

JUST DUST

PS - Nice work there GTO and know it took a long time to compile and sort the data.... now if I can only get the hidden facts/stats.... LOL
TO BE OR NOT TO BE..... NOW WHAT KIND OF QUESTION IS THAT??? TO BE OF COURSE!!!!!

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Re: The G with some Basics.

Post by cowboyschick » Fri Mar 27, 2009 9:09 am

OMG play the game already it is suppose to be fun..quit taking it so serious. Use your instint which comes in time the more you play, who has time to think about all these stats when your playing a card. Everyone has lost the point of this being a game made for our enjoyment. Have fun folks..just my opinion.

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Re: The G with some Basics.

Post by Ratwhowillbeking » Sat Mar 28, 2009 6:52 am

I remember when I used to have fun playing with Stacey :(

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Re: The G with some Basics.

Post by cowboyschick » Sat Mar 28, 2009 8:56 am

:(

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Re: The G with some Basics.

Post by American Beauty » Sat Mar 28, 2009 11:20 pm

That is freaking amazing stuff, GTO.

I appreciate it.

... I can't believe I actually understood it... ;)
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Re: The G with some Basics.

Post by callme7 » Wed Apr 15, 2009 5:35 am

I have had some real good feedback on, why, the failure, the success of "The Next Call" i think a little look at this is warranted, i know and hope players put their dime or pennies worth in. When i started playing this game, we also played a real fun version. This required the dealer to automatically turn it down if it wasn't ordered by any other seat, this made the dealers P order up if they thought they had any chance at all. But the dealer could call if it got back to them on the second round. Why am i mentioning this? because there was no such thing as a next call under these rules, you really did have to call your own hand. The point being, "Next" is based on the colour that is turned down, IF the dealer doesn't think that they can be successful, or they are bagging the 1st seat. Now, with all things being equal, the dealer in the HW version of the game is giving you a clue when he turns the deal down, my point here, a true bagging hand on "next" doesn't appear as much as someone calling a successful next in the 1st seat. I'm not saying call next, i'm saying the percentage is on your side, just by the deal being turned down, try it. Hah, intuition can have a huge part to play here, who you are playing could be important. Some players say that calling their own hand and crossing in the 1st seat is just as good, it's not in the very long run, but you should be able to recognize when you can cross. If they counted the times subconsciously they called "next" they will find crossing comes second. ( I watch them daily )
If that was the case, turning the deal down gives no clue on what to call, that's wrong in my opinion. But in provi games where learner players are playing, next can be less successful because some players don't know the strength of the cards they hold. Just another point for debate. Keep calling. :) :)

Eennie Meenie

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Re: The G with some Basics.

Post by UpsNDowns » Tue Apr 21, 2009 2:36 pm

cowboyschick wrote:OMG play the game already it is suppose to be fun..quit taking it so serious. Use your instint which comes in time the more you play, who has time to think about all these stats when your playing a card. Everyone has lost the point of this being a game made for our enjoyment. Have fun folks..just my opinion.
Very profound statement and I think it is the best advice in the forum to date. Hats off to you cowboyschick.

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Re: The G with some Basics.

Post by Dust In The Wind » Tue Apr 21, 2009 9:12 pm

Ennie Menie minnie moe this is the card to go..........

LOL


JUST DUST
TO BE OR NOT TO BE..... NOW WHAT KIND OF QUESTION IS THAT??? TO BE OF COURSE!!!!!

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Re: The G with some Basics.

Post by callme7 » Wed Apr 22, 2009 3:25 am

UpsNDowns wrote:Very profound statement and I think it is the best advice in the forum to date. Hats off to you cowboyschick.
Lmao, oh well the rest of us tried. :( :(

Eennie Meenie

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Re: The G with some Basics.

Post by cowboyschick » Wed Apr 22, 2009 7:47 am

Very profound statement and I think it is the best advice in the forum to date. Hats off to you cowboyschick
I love this person!!! about time someone else besides myself realized how brilliant i am. good job to you ups and down. :lol:

Wharfie
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Re: The G with some Basics.

Post by Wharfie » Tue Apr 28, 2009 11:13 pm

yes, i have doubted the power or the advantage of the next call in the past as you put it Eennie, but you are right, in a very modest way once the dealer turns the deal down most of the time it's a clue. I have done my little finding on it and found i would call next most of the time in the 1st seat, without realizing it was a next call, just what was in my hand after the dealer rejected it. Think my ratio was about a 60 to 40 in favor, this was when i didn't know about a next call. There is no way that the statistical data in the long run could be right, (1st seat) if it is, to me the percentages are all wrong. In a short run of a few thousand games maybe. Thanks for the info. Wharfman.

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Re: The G with some Basics.

Post by Crocker » Wed May 06, 2009 6:55 am

Can someone help me with this. Do we know if the 7s up game has been announced to be included on here, or is everyone just wishful thinking? I have only written in the Forum once and feel the site is amazing, but i'm an Aussie and would really like to see the 7s version on here. I consider myself a reasonable player, i'm getting better with the input from this thread, but the Loners are a little too frequent i feel. But in saying that, i believe they play about 3000 games a day on here, so it might not be as bad as we think. Would like someones input. Crocker.

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