What would you lead in this case?

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Spadesomniac
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What would you lead in this case?

Post by Spadesomniac » Mon Jul 30, 2012 8:35 am

Here's a hand I played last night. I'd be interested in hearing from everyone what you would play in this situation and why.

After that I'll post what everyone actually had and what happened!

Score is
248 North South
240 East West

North 1/4
South 2/2
West 1/2
East 2/3

You are South, of course. You've made your two bid by the skin of your teeth and your pard has made only one of his four tricks so far. You have the Q and 9 of clubs, the 5 and 8 of hearts and the 2, 4 and 5 of spades.

Additional information: Earlier in this hand, you lost a K of diamonds trumped by east. You finessed a heart trick to make up for your lost king and make your bid. In that play, east played a low heart, you played the queen, winning the trick, and then followed it up with the ace.You know there are four hearts left to be played (of which you have two). King of hearts is Master and you saw West throw the J of hearts on a club trick. There are six clubs yet to be played (including your two) and you know West is void and that your Q is master.

What is your best play here and why?

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dustin7609
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Re: What would you lead in this case?

Post by dustin7609 » Tue Jul 31, 2012 2:56 pm

Let me rewrite this out (sorry, have to see it this way reading so much on card theory)

542 85 -- Q9
(traditional SHDC notation)

Partner = 1/4 You 2/2


How are there 4 hearts left? Wasn't 2 rounds played? Should be 3 hearts remaining outside our hand.

Can you please give us the play by play? It's very confusing how it's written. Just write Trick 1: 2D led, followed by __, __, __. Etc. Write out trick by trick up to this point so we can make sense of this.

For example, I have no idea how there'd be 6 clubs yet to be played. We have 2 in our hand. That means 5 clubs have been played so far? Someone showed out? Who? This is important info. Or do you mean including our clubs there are 6 left? So 7 have been played? Again, someone must have been out.

It's impossible to analyze a hand how you've presented it. If you expect people to post about a hand, you have to at least present it in a clear manner.

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Galt
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Re: What would you lead in this case?

Post by Galt » Wed Aug 01, 2012 1:56 pm

I was going to say basically the same thing.

Without knowing who played what on each trick there is no way to have much of an idea.

You may already be set or may have an easy save.
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Spadesomniac
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Re: What would you lead in this case?

Post by Spadesomniac » Wed Aug 01, 2012 9:19 pm

Thanks everyone. I'll watch the replay again and post details soon.

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Re: What would you lead in this case?

Post by Spadesomniac » Thu Aug 02, 2012 8:45 am

Hi everyone,

Here's the full game until hand I'm asking about:


1. South 2C
West 5C
North AC
East 4C

2. North 7C
East KC
South 3C
West JH

3. East 4D
South 7D
West AD
North QD
4.
East 9D
North 6D
East 3S
South KD
5.
East 7H
South QH
West 6H
North 9H

6.
South AH
West 4H
North 10H
East 2H

At this point score is
Them: 240 Us: 248
North is 1/4, South is 2/2, East is 2/3 and West is 1/2 (Note: just edited to correct these numbers.)
South has 542 89 -- 58 left in hand

What is South's best lead and why?

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dustin7609
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Re: What would you lead in this case?

Post by dustin7609 » Thu Aug 30, 2012 4:52 pm

Ok, well I would have played low to the 7H lead on trick 5. However, since you took with the Q, I definitely would not cash in the ace like you did. But since you did, I think a trump lead is auto. Partner has bid 4 and only shown up with 1 trick so far. Hopefully he has some spade length for that bid. There really is no other lead that makes sense.

Why did North play the QD trick 3?


…AC
5C….4C
2C

7C
JH….KC
…3C

…QD
AD….4D
…7D

…6D
9D….3S
…KD

…9H
6H….7H
…QH

…TH
4H….2H
AH


542 AQ85 K7 Q932

Spadesomniac
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Re: What would you lead in this case?

Post by Spadesomniac » Fri Aug 31, 2012 7:03 pm

Thanks, Dustin!

Yeah, I did not ask North why he played the Q of dimes but I was very bummed at the time to see him throw it. I'm guessing he was avoiding bags.

Since I'm posting this hand to improve my play (and also perhaps to help others) can you say why you wouldn't have finessed with the Q of hearts on trick 5? Since I lost the K of diamonds (which I'd bid) I felt pressure to make one up. And having won the trick with QH, why not follow up with the ace? Is this because of risk of trump, or because of risk my pard has the K of hearts and will be forced to play it under my ace?

In this case he didn't have the K of hearts but that of course doesn't change what the right play is based on what was known at that moment. I've lost my King quite a few times under a pard's ace in just that way.

As for the main question, I'm going to give it a day or two to see if anyone responds before posting the outcome. Sneak preview: This is a hand that we got set where I think we shouldn't have and I want to learn from my role in it. Would everyone else lead a small spade or are there other good options here?

--Spadesomniac

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Re: What would you lead in this case?

Post by qetzal » Sun Sep 02, 2012 12:46 pm

I'm not even close to Dustin's league, but spades was my first thought as well. First, for the same reason Dustin said. P has taken only one trick on a 4-bid, and aside from spades, KH is the only count card left. So P must be expecting at least 2 spades tricks.

Second reason is that E is out of clubs & W is out of dimes. You can't afford to let them get a cross-ruff going, so you need to pull their spades. (You're out of dimes too, but your spades are too low to overtrump W.)

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Re: What would you lead in this case?

Post by Spadesomniac » Mon Sep 03, 2012 8:42 am

Thank you everyone so far!

It turned out I did lead spades, for just the reasons Dustin and quetzai said. Immediately after the lead, my partner started yelling that I was setting him and I should "never" lead spades unless I can "cover his ass." It's not the first time I've gotten this comment in a nearly identical situation, so I thought I'd take a look and see if there is in fact a flaw in my play in this situation.

So if my spades lead was correct, what were the errors that led to our set?

The complete hand is below, as well as the errors I can find on my own. Can someone please say if I'm correct or if I'm missing anything?

1. In trick three North should have saved his Q of diamonds instead of throwing it under West's Ace.

2. In trick 10 North should have led either a spade or the 2D. The spade lead would have exhausted all spades but his and his 10 of dimes was almost certain to grab up a trick given that there were eight diamonds unplayed, the J was high and 10 was second in line. A lead of 2D also would have worked as it clearly called for a trump from me, which would have been effective.

3. Also in trick 10, South (me) made an error by not trumping the 10 of diamonds. It was a bad lead, but pards do give us bad leads. I missed the opportunity because in the moment I questioned whether 10 could be high... I was nearly certain I hadn't seen the J yet but in the moment I flubbed it. My pard did not criticize this but this is where I most see that I could have saved us!

…AC
5C….4C
…2C

…7C
JH….KC
…3C

…QD
AD….4D
…7D

…6D
9D….3S
…KD

…9H
6H….7H
…QH

…TH
4H….2H
…AH


…QS
8S….AS
…2S

... 3H
3D....KH
....5H

... KS
JS....10S
....4S

....TD
JD....10C
....8H


....6S
9S....6C
....5S


...2D
8D...8C
...9C


....7S
5D....JC
...QC



Spadesomniac

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