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Last Hand Bid Puzzle 2

Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2015 12:32 am
by babar
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What is your bid and why?
score: Red 451 Blue 421
your p bid nil....rho bid 5...you are 3rd bidder....lho yet to bid

Re: Last Hand Bid Puzzle 2

Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 7:14 am
by Emfiras
I will bid 9 assuming last player will nil too with 5 bid ahead of me so the score won't be tie if i bid 8. 7 spades and 4 dimes x x j ace if one of the 2 nillers had Q or K dimes then 9 bid will be easy to make

Re: Last Hand Bid Puzzle 2

Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 6:02 pm
by igottabeme
I would have bid 9 too. I would take the chance having such a good hand, and knowing it's the last hand.

Re: Last Hand Bid Puzzle 2

Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 8:07 pm
by Galt
The correct bid here is 8.

One should never bid more than needed to achieve the desired outcome.

I we bid 8 and make 8 we have a tie game.

If we bid 8 and make 9 we win.

If we bid 9 and make 9 we win.

if we bid 9 and make 8 we lose.

8 allows for a win or a tie.

9 allows for a win or a loss.

Re: Last Hand Bid Puzzle 2

Posted: Wed Apr 22, 2015 10:07 am
by xtimmiex
Galt wrote:The correct bid here is 8.

One should never bid more than needed to achieve the desired outcome.

If we bid 8 and make 8 we have a tie game.

If we bid 8 and make 9 we win.
I'm not sure if this has simply been overlooked, but the hand in question is third to act.
Given that important piece of information, I think that bidding 8 is excessive, and fails to meet your own guideline. Your argument is based on the assumption that the dealer will bid nil, but that doesn't make any sense. -- Why would the dealer bid nil, when it is a 13 bid, and bidding nil doesn't win the game? In this situation, the dealer is far more likely to bid 1 and attempt to set the 8 or the nil.

I think the winning bid is 4.

I realize this may seem counterintuitive, but you have an excellent chance of taking 9 tricks if the dealer bids nil. This requires a little clever manipulation. Since the dealer's team already has a 30 point advantage, bidding 4 makes it seem safe for him to bid nil. Given that the total table bid will only be 9, your 4 bid may fool your RHO into giving away a trick in hearts or clubs.

It is impossible to take 9 bags, and you win the game if you set the 5 bid.
(421 + 100 + 45= 566) vs (451 + 100 - 50= 501)

Bidding 1, 2, or 3 can also work. -- Anything other than 8 works, really.

The less you bid, the more options you give to the dealer. If you bid 1, the dealer can bid 3, or 4 to outbid you. I would love to find myself in that situation! :]

Re: Last Hand Bid Puzzle 2

Posted: Wed Apr 22, 2015 10:47 am
by gtbanuh
I am with galt, 8 all day.

Re: Last Hand Bid Puzzle 2

Posted: Wed Apr 22, 2015 11:16 am
by gtbanuh
XTIMMIEX RESPONSE,SMILEY FACE AND ALL:
I'm not sure if this has simply been overlooked, but the hand in question is third to act.
Given that important piece of information, I think that bidding 8 is excessive, and fails to meet your own guideline. Your argument is based on the assumption that the dealer will bid nil, but that doesn't make any sense. -- Why would the dealer bid nil, when it is a 13 bid, and bidding nil doesn't win the game?
In this situation, the dealer is far more likely to bid 1 and attempt to set the 8 or the nil.

I think the winning bid is 4.

I realize this may seem counterintuitive, but you have an excellent chance of taking 9 tricks if the dealer bids nil. This requires a little clever manipulation. Since the dealer's team already has a 30 point advantage, bidding 4 makes it seem safe for him to bid nil. Given that the total table bid will only be 9, your 4 bid may fool your RHO into giving away a trick in hearts or clubs.

It is impossible to take 9 bags, and you win the game if you set the 5 bid.
(421 + 100 + 45= 566) vs (451 + 100 - 50= 501)

Bidding 1, 2, or 3 can also work. -- Anything other than 8 works, really.

The less you bid, the more options you give to the dealer. If you bid 1, the dealer can bid 3, or 4 to outbid you. I would love to find myself in that situation! :]

Re: Last Hand Bid Puzzle 2

Posted: Wed Apr 22, 2015 11:57 am
by babar
ok here is full hand

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Re: Last Hand Bid Puzzle 2

Posted: Wed Apr 22, 2015 10:24 pm
by Galt
My biggest rule for not losing at Spades is to not play scared.

Bidding anything but 8 here is playing scared.

Why would the dealer bid NIl here?... because the 8 bid can certainly be taken as a forced bid, which in fact it is. Further, even if the 8 bid is real, bidding Nil allows for a tie game and another chance to win the game.

East bid 5 with something. There are only 6 count cards outstanding (AK of Hearts, AK of Clubs, and Kings of Diamonds and Spades) unless a player has maybe 4 spades. If anybody has 4 Spades it is East. He might even have 5.

Further, if our partner is smart, he bid Nil even with a risky hand (even with the Spade King). If he has a 1 or 2 bid he must bid Nil because our team needs 8 tricks on this hand if he doesn't. It is highly unlikely from his seat that we have a 6 or 7 bid hand.

It is very unlikely that West has anything of value in his hand. If he does, so be it.
One can play what if all day long in most situations, but in this situation West is going to bid Nil probably 95% of the time or more. Further, even if he does bid 1, there is still a decent chance that we can take 8 tricks.

If we don't bid 8 here, West is going to bid Nil and we possibly will lose the game. If we do, our partner will be asking why we did not bid 8, and there will be no reasonable answer.

Also, if not bidding 8, we might as well just bid one. At least that throws complete confusion into the hand. The game is going to end on this hand one way or another. The lower we bid the greater the chance that we can lull East into a set of the 5 bid.

That said, I bid 8 here all day long. Not doing so is simply overthinking the situation.

Re: Last Hand Bid Puzzle 2

Posted: Wed Apr 22, 2015 10:46 pm
by Galt
I had not looked at the full hand prior to the previous post because it isn't relevant.

It does present an interesting picture, though.

If West bids 1...

Your pard is likely to lead Diamonds.

East will win 3 tricks for sure. The question then becomes can E/W win 3 Diamond tricks. That is a possibility. The unusual distribution factor is that West has 3 of the 4 outstanding cover cards for our Diamonds. The chance of that being the case is approximately 10% everything else being equal. With East bidding 5 it would seem less likely than that.

If I am west here, I am bidding Nil and hoping that either my pard can set a forced 8 bid or we tie and move on.

If we bid less than 8, if West I am definitley bidding Nil and that would be a hard Nil to break. We are either going to have to cover West Dimes or sluff the Dimes and wind up Spade tight.

What did West bid?

Re: Last Hand Bid Puzzle 2

Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2015 5:30 am
by xtimmiex
I disagree that 8 is a "forced" bid. Given the score, if any bid is "forced", it is the first player's nil. -- They are down 30 points, and the other team more than likely has the necessary 5 tricks to bid out. If the first bidder doesn't have a substantial hand, he has to nil. Also, keep in mind, that with the way scoring works, it is never beneficial to bid more than you actually have when covering a nil, or you run the risk of a double set.

If the dealer interprets the 8 bid as a legitimate attempt at 8 or more tricks, it would be completely ridiculous for him to bid nil. You say that one "shouldn't play scared", but for the dealer to bid nil, would be just that. The dealer can bid nil and hope that his partner is able to still make 5 tricks despite the 8 bid behind him, allowing the game to end in a tie, or he can be brave and bid 1 to play for the outright win.

I have seen a few mention that the 8 bid allows for the possibility for a tie. This is simply not accurate, if the dealer does not nil. Without a second nil on the table, the possibility of the game ending in a tie is zero. I realize it is convenient to your argument assume certain things, but absent a second nil, bidding anything other than 8 is just as effective. The only difference is that by bidding lower, you give the dealer a longer rope to hang himself with.

If the dealer chooses to bid nil in response to your 4 bid, you are in the same exact position as if you had bid 8. Setting the 5 bid wins the game. If the dealer does not nil, you win the game easily.

Re: Last Hand Bid Puzzle 2

Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2015 7:33 am
by babar
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Re: Last Hand Bid Puzzle 2

Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2015 7:02 pm
by Galt
You can bid 4 (for some unknown reason rather than one), and you are going to lose far more games than if you bid 8.

Let's say that we bid 4.

The dealer now has absolutely no choice but to bid Nil.

Now we have to win 9 tricks or lose.

So, by bidding 4 we are really bidding 9 and counting on deception to win the game.

I'd rather bid 8 and win at least 95% of games from this position.

Re: Last Hand Bid Puzzle 2

Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2015 7:33 pm
by xtimmiex
Saying that you will win 95% of the time by bidding 8 is dishonest.

If the dealer bids nil, you only get the win if you take 9 tricks. Bidding 8 doesn't give you any advantage in your attempt to take 9 tricks. If you don't win 9 tricks, the game ends in a tie. How do you figure that you win 95% of games ending in a tie? -- It is more like a coin flip if you don't win 9 tricks.

This whole argument is extremely flawed. The dealer is not going to bid nil if you bid 8! Bidding 8 only puts unneeded pressure on you to make 8 tricks or lose. In the actual game, the 6 of diamonds is the opening lead. The 8 bid loses a club, a heart, three diamonds, and a spade.

Can you explain the point you made earlier that the dealer basically has to nil because the 8 bid is "forced"? -- I'm having a hard time comprehending why anybody would bid 8 without 8 in this situation.

Re: Last Hand Bid Puzzle 2

Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 6:50 am
by babar
bidding 8 will put extra pressure on 4th bidder and question is can he play as good on clutch hands?
4 bid..a fake one..for ur p too.... your p is nil..is that forced or easy? if we bid 4/5 may be p come out and try to set dealer nil or 1 bid....i wonder what 2nd bidder would b thinking after seeing 8 bid.. :lol: half game over with 8 bid..real question is how to get 2 Diamond tricks to make 8.