Lopsided Deals

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Galt
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Re: Lopsided Deals

Post by Galt » Sun Oct 25, 2015 8:38 am

What you say is true.

I am convinced that The Zone had rigged deals for just this reason, and the resulting effect that the more players in the seats the higher the advertising rate.

There, it seemed that the deals were rigged to try to force a 50/50 outcome over time. I did know players against whom I use to play at a different site who could never win tournaments there and switched to playing at The Zone because they could often win tournaments there.

However, unless the deals are somehow linked to a player's nic or ratings, and do not believe that this was the case there, and certainly not here, things will still even out over time and the cream will always rise to the top.

If that was not the case, one would not see a wide range of ratings from very weak to very strong.
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ChasingMyTail
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Re: Lopsided Deals

Post by ChasingMyTail » Fri Dec 25, 2015 6:54 pm

*IF* the deals were rigged to favor weaker players, so they wouldn't lose interest, that would mean deals would be rigged against stronger players, penalising them, so they'd quit in disgust. Either way, it makes no sense. Last time I checked the leader boards, it looks like about 50% of the players are over 1650, and half under. So... which half of your customer base are you going to upset? EVERY card site I've ever played on has people complaining that the deals are unfair. There are even websites where people complain about 'rigged deals' in Microsoft's Free Cell and Hearts game. My son is a professional programmer, and when I've discussed this with him, he just laughs. The complexity of a program would take into account the relative strength of players, seat colours, W/L records, score, etc, would be 1. insanely complicated (if possible on anything short of a supercomputer) 2. insanely expensive to write for a site like Hardwood.

Random does not mean fair.

C'mon people, sometimes you just hit a bad streak. If the deals were so rigged, then everyone would be a 50% player. Yet there are people who are consistently able to attain high ratings on all their nics. Does the deal program just like them? Perhaps there's some (gasp) skill involved?

Openshut
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Re: Lopsided Deals

Post by Openshut » Tue Jan 05, 2016 7:49 pm

I like what your thinking chasing, unfortunately this is not how a non-random system would work. Mind you, you have already pointed out how you think it would fail and you are correct in that respect. A non random system would use the KISS method. Think of rope walking with a pole. So as the system sees an imbalance it would attempt to to balance this out. Mind you irrespective if skill the odds of winning is 45-55%. Now because better players essentially are problem solvers, they will anticipate the re-action and try to move it to their favor. This could be as simple as nilling when they should not, after reading the opponents weak ability to set, or faking a bagging situation on an opponents 9 bid thus setting them.

The point may be lost here, but I am simply illustrating how a practical nonrandom system would work.

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Galt
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Re: Lopsided Deals

Post by Galt » Wed Jan 06, 2016 10:59 pm

Your point does have validity.

I do believe that the deals at The Zone were rigged to try to generate a 50/50 type outcome in order to fill the seats. I spent many years as a professional statistician dealing with probability (inferential statistics) mainly. What I saw at The Zone bore no resemblance to reality, and was even predictable.

I will never forget playing in was then the most prestigious tournament that they had. It was one team from each of the Zone Clubs and a double elimination tourney.

My pard and I were way ahead on the last hand of the first game and lost the game to a drop dead blind nil.

We then won our next 9 games and, surprise surprise, our opps in the final game was the same team that beat us in game 1. Again, going to the last hand we were way ahead, and again lost to a drop dead blind nil. The most interesting aspect was that the host somehow figured out that we came in 3rd.

Granted I have not played here in quite some time, but I never saw anything that I thought was clearly not natural as compared to what I have seen at live events. Jonas and the gang have been very up-front over the years detailing their dealing algorithm, and it appears to me to be solid.

Lopsided deals make for bad games and lots of frustration. I have never had the sense, though, that HW is into manipulating outcomes.
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ChasingMyTail
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Re: Lopsided Deals

Post by ChasingMyTail » Mon Jan 11, 2016 11:20 am

openshut

*IF* they were to use a nonrandom system, how would they decide who to favor? I've never seen any real evidence of bias on Hardwood. No more so than I've seen playing spades in real life. I understand what you're saying, that they *could* do it, but again, why? There's no motive for Hardwood to rig the deals. Good players are good players, regardless. They cope with unbalanced deals. Over the course of a game, from what I've seen, the deals generally balance out.

As I said, every card site I've ever played on, people complain about the bad deals. I guess it's human nature to see what they want to see. Some people can't accept losses.

Openshut
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Re: Lopsided Deals

Post by Openshut » Mon Jan 11, 2016 6:04 pm

ChasingMyTail wrote:openshut

*IF* they were to use a nonrandom system, how would they decide who to favor? I've never seen any real evidence of bias on Hardwood. No more so than I've seen playing spades in real life. I understand what you're saying, that they *could* do it, but again, why? There's no motive for Hardwood to rig the deals. Good players are good players, regardless. They cope with unbalanced deals. Over the course of a game, from what I've seen, the deals generally balance out.

As I said, every card site I've ever played on, people complain about the bad deals. I guess it's human nature to see what they want to see. Some people can't accept losses.
You are asking the wrong question!
The reality is that we will always see patterns, this is without regards to reality. So the real question is do we understand math, and have confidence in it. If yes, then this argument becomes simple. If no then I can not help, for the obvious, the situations will mostly look not random unless they pacify what we believe!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ChasingMyTail
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Re: Lopsided Deals

Post by ChasingMyTail » Tue Jan 12, 2016 10:22 am

I agree, as I said, people see what they want to see, no matter how illogical it is

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