Right or Wrong? You Make the Call

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Just_Ice
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Right or Wrong? You Make the Call

Post by Just_Ice » Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:40 am

I joined in a random Reg game this morning. Settings were Nil 100, No BN, No Pass, 500.

Game had proceeded somewhat normal to the point in question, except for a very questionable nil cover a few hands back that both set me and bagged us out.

This is what happened 2 hands ago so you know my thought process.

Score:
Them 347
Us 417

My Heart holding: 4,7,8,9,10,Q

I had nothing else, so I bid nil.

Here's how play commenced:

I opened with the 4 H.

The chance of my pard having ONLY cards under the 7 and the opps then not being able to cover was astranomically low. So, I led Hearts so my pard could play his low Heart and get it out of the way.

LHO played the J H.
My pard played the K H.
RHO won the trick with A H.

I thought immediately to myself, "Awesome, he's out of Hearts. Plan succeeded"

RHO led the 2 H.
I played the 7 H.
LHO played the 6 H.
Pard played his only other Heart, the 3, and I was set.

My only comment was "Why mess around when the game is won?"

No reply.

I wasn't too upset because it was a 12 bid total and I think his thought process might have been if he took 3 quick tricks the opponents might have to cover me. But, still, they will set themselves to keep from losing the game. His #1 priority should have been to cover the nil.

This is why we were so far behind at the point I want to question.

We pick up here 2 hands later:

Score:
Them 420
Us 221

Here are my cards:

S: 5,9,10
H: 2,3,4,5,6,10
C: 4,6,7
D: K

My pard bid first and bid 5

RHO bid 2

What do you bid?

Answer before you read on.



I bid Nil, as I felt the risk of the single King making nil was much better than the chance of winning if I bid 1. I had a 33% chance that my pard had the A which was, virtually, our only chance of winning, I felt.

When my RHO saw my single K that set my nil, he said:

"Writing down [me] on my no p list"

What? Writing down ME for what happened on his no p list?

Was I right? Wrong?

I'll let you be the judge.

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Luna
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Post by Luna » Thu Nov 30, 2006 9:04 am

I think I'd put that guy on your DNP list for the poor heart play on the first nil try:P

I tend to play conservatively so on the second hand in question I think I probably would have bid 1. Even if my stiff K of dias doesnt make it through, there's a very good chance I can trump a diamond at some point. Though when you're behind by so much it may be better to go for it.

I'm not sure there is a right answer. It's easy afterwards to second guess one's bid.

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Absolutely
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Post by Absolutely » Thu Nov 30, 2006 10:15 am

Score:
Them 347
Us 417

My Heart holding: 4,7,8,9,10,Q

I had nothing else, so I bid nil.

Here's how play commenced:

I opened with the 4 H.

The chance of my pard having ONLY cards under the 7 and the opps then not being able to cover was astranomically low. So, I led Hearts so my pard could play his low Heart and get it out of the way.
Putting yourself in your partners seat. You went NIL; you led the 4 of hearts. What "signal" or "information" does that give your partner ?

I bet your partner thought, my partner is safe in that suit.

Which you were not.

If your other suits "had nothing else"; maybe there was a better lead ?
:-) YA'LL REALLY CRACK ME UP !!! :-)

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Post by omni_555 » Thu Nov 30, 2006 12:52 pm

Just_Ice, you don't say what the other bids were (except that the total bid was 12), so there might have been something else going on there. However, it still seems to be a rather dumb play to cover the J with his K when that would leave him with a very good chance to set your nil with the 3. It is POSSIBLE that his play may have been the result of a misclick... With a 12-bid on the table, he certainly should NOT have been worried about bags!

In the second hand you described, the opps needed 8 to win, and your partner had bid 5, so a 1-bid would have probably been the most effective block to make there. On the other hand, the opps could easily have played it safe and gone to 470 or 480 with a conservative bid to easily end the game next hand. So, tha nil would have been your only chance at getting back into the game - just a little. But even a successful nil and 5 bid by your team would have left you with a score of 390 to, say, 470, needing a bit of a miracle to not lose the game next hand anyway.

My vote would be a toss-up here. You would have to "read" your opponents to know what they would likely do with dofferent approaches from you. If you think that a nil bid would "rattle" them, then by all means it would be worth the shot. If you thought that LHO was the type to reach for game, maybe a 1-bid would have forced him to overbid his hand giving you and your pard a chance to set.

A lot of cases like this one cannot really be decided by just looking at the cards and the score alone, but would also benefit from a little psychological profiling of the other players. 8)
Playing games should be FUN - seek out your own level! Don't frustrate others unnecessarily. 8)

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Just_Ice
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Post by Just_Ice » Thu Nov 30, 2006 6:19 pm

If it was a misclick, he never mentioned it. In fact, when he saw I was set he zapped himself.

The bids in this game were frequently 10, and sometimes 11. This was the only hand with a 12 total.

I did consider that I should have led something else. Next time I'm in a similar situation I'll lead the 7. When I looked at my other suits, I had 2 in each suit, a low and mid card. I thought it best to not lead from my 2 card suits.

I understand people have different playing styles. I see a 200 point deficit and see the best chance to win is with a Nil here. I expected them to take 2 hands to win the game, and as you say Omni, that meant we would need a Nil on both of those hands to have a chance. That meant bidding Nil. In any case, if you can bid 1 and somehow set them, that would work too. I just didn't see that happening. i didn't see them overbidding with the game in hand.

But, to say they wouldn't pard me because of this? People have different playing styles, and I still feel bidding Nil with the K gives you the best odd of winning from that point.

I appreciate your comments.

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Post by Dust In The Wind » Thu Nov 30, 2006 6:32 pm

Sorry I would have bid 1 or 2 in this second hand case to force their hand if they were going to try to end the game on that hand. The other hand I agree with your second insight and would have choosen to lead other than hearts.

Was your pard wrong in his comment, I would say yes and figure I don't always agree with my partners but doesn't mean I won't play with them again for making what I might perceive as mistakes.

Spades isn't like football where we can huddle before the play and decide how best to win as a team.

JUST DUST
TO BE OR NOT TO BE..... NOW WHAT KIND OF QUESTION IS THAT??? TO BE OF COURSE!!!!!

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Post by Galt » Thu Nov 30, 2006 7:53 pm

Not exactly sure what you are asking J, but...

Your Nil bid on the last hand is a no brainer (your shot is actually better than 33% due to the bids in front of you, but it doesn't really matter. You are not going to win the game getting to 280 on the hand).

Regarding the first Nil hand, I'd stay away from that suit like the plague. I don't know what else you had, but you said nothing.

One really wants that suit led, hopefully by West, and, if not, by East.

Your pard's play of the King over the Jack was not a good one for sure.

If I, for some reason, had to lead from that Heart suit, I'd lead the 7.
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Just_Ice
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Post by Just_Ice » Thu Nov 30, 2006 10:00 pm

The off suits on the Nil were something like 3, 9 and 4, 10. I'd have to look to be exact, but that was close. I didn't want to lead from either of those. Hearts was the best suit to lead from.

Yes, I think the 7 would have been the better lead.

See, I agree, Galt, I think the Nil is a no-brainer there. A 1 (or 2) bid does absolutely no good there. Although it wasn't the last hand, it could have been, and it certainly was the next to last hand.

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Post by abcba123 » Fri Dec 01, 2006 12:02 am

Many times one play during a game determines the outcome. What was that play in this game ? Was the partner's play of the K on the first round what lost the game ? Actually no.

What lost the game was leading the 4.

As questioned earlier, your lead indicated a safe suit ? However, it wasn't a safe suit in the nil hand. And now you lost your low card in that suit and held the remaining high cards. It confused your partner. Another key point. This was a drop in game. Apparently of some low rank. You didn't know your partner. This only adds even more to the confusion.

My guess is that your partner was equally not happy with the busted nil and didn't appreciate the comment "Why mess around when the game is won?" This comment just threw the blame on them.

No " I " in TEAM ?

After throwing my arsenal of fooms at you; :lol: I would have followed the Guides advice at that point in time and muted you. I'd be shaking my head at blaming me for a risky nil and a poor lead.

The second nil then became a desparation nil; as the game was already in the dumper. Your partner then typing add to my "DNP" list was just a response to your lead, blaming them, and seeing what appeared to be an easy win now slip away.

I can think of a few times where I have had to say to my partner; sorry partner, let me redeem myself, let's play another.
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Post by Just_Ice » Fri Dec 01, 2006 8:23 am

Galt, my thought process went like this:

My Heart holding: 4,7,8,9,10,Q

The outstanding cards were: 2,3,5,6,J,K,A

This leaves 4 cards that can not cover the 7 lead. If my pard's Heart holding was only 1 or 2 of them, I was probably set with the 7 lead. If he had 2, that meant an opp had to cover the 7 the 2nd time they were led, and they would be forced to do so. By leading the 4 I was planning for just such the occasion. Normally I do try to lead from a safe suit. My hearts WERE safe had his first priority been to cover the Nil. I figured if we can just make it past the first round of hearts I have it made... it then BECOMES a safe suit. There were only enough low cards outstanding to duck the 7 once, so I played expecting my pard to cover the Nil as his first priority.
abcba123 wrote:What lost the game was leading the 4.
abcba123, are you saying you would have made the same play he did in this situation when he covered the J? Because if it was all my fault, then that makes his play correct. When you have 3, K and your pard is Nil, playing your K on the first round when your pard is already covered, is always a mistake. Funny you don't point that out as a mistake, but you do my judgment call. Leading the 4 or 7 is a judgement call, as Omni said, partly associated to how the game has gone and how everyone is playing. There are situations where you can get set with either lead. However, playing the K in that situation is always a mistake.

As I said, I knew if I made it to the 2nd round of Hearts I was safe. Leading the 4 automatically gets me to the 2nd round, leading the 7 does not. Leading the 7 might have set me. Again, judgment verse mistake; there's quite a difference. You can say my judgment turned out to be mistaken, but ONLY because he covered the J. Next time I might get set leading the 7. My judgment in this situation was actually correct, because I KNEW if I made it to the 2nd round I was safe. That was the case had he just played Spades 101 and covered my Nil.

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Post by Galt » Fri Dec 01, 2006 9:43 am

I'd still lead from one of the 2 other side suits if they were as you indicated.

I haven't looked at the exact numbers that far down recently, but the 9 has to be around 85% or so, and the 10 near 80%, and that is just for your pard.... does not include one of the opps having no choice but to cover.
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Post by abcba123 » Fri Dec 01, 2006 10:00 am

You quoted me correctly Justice. Your lead of the 4 lost the game. And placing blame on your partner during the game was inappropriate at best.

Let's talk about the nil decision first. Your nil was risky at best. Maybe even un-necessary given the score of the game. The risk/reward of nilling here was a game-breaker. Leading the 4 cemented the loss. If you would have bid 1; and gone set; you would have at least still been close in score and maybe in the lead as they would have bagged out. Risk vs reward ? It's not enough to think you have a nil; you also have to look at the score.

As for leading the 4; you have already said yourself, that in hindsight, you should have perhaps led the 7. So I think you have already answered your question as to what lost the game. The 7 would have been better but still not necessarily the best lead.

It's a risky nil. Then you decided to lead the low card in your trouble suit ? Even if it was the 7; it's still your trouble suit. As others have suggested, a different lead including suit would probably be more appropriate. Normally one would lead from a short suit with a medium card not your low card. Which it appears you had in two other suits.

What information did leading the 4 provide your partner ?

My guess is your partner thought you were safe in hearts. You were not.

The lead caused confusion and thus the loss. Your partner made a decision based on the 4 lead.

Third point. You also should have taken note of the fact that this was a random game. So I assume this was a partner you had no knowledge of how they played. Even more reason to be more conservative especially with a good lead.

As it turns out, your risky nil and the 4 lead put you behind. The risk was far greater than the reward. I do agree that the second nil was pure desparation. You had no choice now.

Fourth point. You blamed your partner in the game. Then you posted here again placing blame on your partner and chastised him for commenting about placing you on his DNP list. If you review the hand as above; you can see why your partner felt that way.

Leading the 4 was the wrong lead and the nil perhaps even un-necessary at this point in the game; even if your bid of one got set.

That's what your partner saw.
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Post by player2376 » Fri Dec 01, 2006 10:17 am

What the heck ya'll doin bidding nil at that score anyway.. hmmm

Risky nil unless your partner bids 6 ahead of you.. wayyyyyy tooo

many high cards... lousy distribution.

The way I see it, any decent player will cover a partner's 1 bid at that
score... I do it every day.

1 bids win games.... busted nils do not.

Maybe a lesson learned?

and btw you forced your p's king with that lead on a high bidding hand.. of course he used his King assuming you were safe in that suit with that lead
.

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Post by Galt » Fri Dec 01, 2006 1:13 pm

It is pretty clear that the opp's remark was regarding the Diamond King singleton.

Although I have said that I would not have led the Heart 4 in the first hand, J's pard's play of the King is what lost the game. There is no combination of table bids that justifies that play. Even if J's pard gets set on his bid, the team is still going to have a very nice lead as long as the Nil is covered.

Plus, if the opps do set the cover bid, they are going to have at least 9 bags going forward.

It is a purely amaturish play, if not completely clueless.
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Post by x MISSY x » Fri Dec 01, 2006 1:22 pm

ALWAYS COVER THE NIL!!! even if you shouldnt have bid the nil he shouldnt have burned his cover. As far as the second nil at that point it really didnt matter and heck i would...Its not like biddin it the second time lost you the game..

I played a live game awhile back where it was close to the last hand er shoulda been anyways, and my pard went nil. We had the game won b4 the nil bid. Soo i assumed her nil was a no brainer. down to the last 2 cards and its going great.. Somehow they had bagged me all the bags. I had Ace, Jack...The other bid on the table was a 5 bid...Sooo I assume he has King Queen. I lead the jack and guess what i did...My pard had the queen. We got set and lost the tourney all because I ASSUMED the nil was safe..Always cover that nil...
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