Endgame question

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uncommonb
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Endgame question

Post by uncommonb » Mon Mar 12, 2007 10:37 pm

Was playing an intense spades game last night with all really decent players.

their score: 449
our score: 384

I am holding:

D: 5
S: A K J 6
H: K Q J
S: Q J 10 8 5

West bids nil
North bids 3
East bids 1

What should I have bid?


I couldn't decide between 7 or 8 and went with 8. Although we would have slim chances busting the nil wo/ setting ourselves, the hand was just too strong. Ideally, the nil would bust resulting in them bagging out. More realistically, I just wanted to give the bags because I would be covering the nil singlehandedly.

I tried to maximize my bid with 8, but I think it may have been too greedy. I think 8 may have been too greedy. I couldnt see bidding lower than 7 because I would be winning most of the tricks with such a powerful hand. I am also really hesitant of shooting the moon without the AK spades.

Also running in the back of my mind was if we got set and the nil succeded.

I had a difficult time deciding what to bid.

Any input would be appreciated.

UncommonB

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Post by _S_X_Eian_ » Tue Mar 13, 2007 6:54 am

Well if you do the math assuming the nil is good and the 1 bid takes at least 2 tricks bagging out then that leaves them with a score of 460 plus a few points for any other bags they get. If you are sitting at 384 then you need 80 points to have more then them. If your partner bids 3 then I would bid 5 and bag the cover. Once they take 2 tricks the nil doesn't matter anymore you already won. If they make the nil without bagging your in trouble anyway. Bid 5 making a 9 bid leaving 4 bags up for grabs. You give 1 to opps and you win.

Eian

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Galt
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Post by Galt » Tue Mar 13, 2007 9:10 am

I am a little confused here. Do we know that this is the last hand of the game somehow?

If this is a normal 500 point game, I would not bid 8. 8 takes it to a 12 bid hand, and then you must play the hand perfectly in order to give the one bag to East. I would bid no more than 7. 7 makes the score 484 to 460 in your favor. One can even justify a bid of 6 in order to try to set the Nil in Spades once or twice, but I would bid 7.

For future reference, it is always best to list card holdings with Spades on top, then Hearts, then Diamonds, and then Clubs. That is the standard approach.
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Just_Ice
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Post by Just_Ice » Tue Mar 13, 2007 2:08 pm

Yeah, only having 4 bags you're safe to underbid at least 2 tricks so you can dump cards to set the nil. I think it's safe to say if you took the bid to 12 there would be little room to decide whether or not to bag 1 to the cover, or use that bag to go for the nil, leaving too great of a risk to make your own bid. I would bid 6 here and pass as many bags as I can to either player.

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Post by uncommonb » Tue Mar 13, 2007 2:46 pm

Sorry this is my first time posting. Thank you all for your input.

As it turned out my prtnr and I made our bids, and E took the 1 extra. Luck was on our side (for that hand, despite my 8 bid.)

We ended up losing via a broken nil the next hand, but this hand was far more interesting.

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Post by Galt » Tue Mar 13, 2007 8:09 pm

No sorry needed at all, it is a good educational post. My comment was certainly not a criticism and I am sorry if it came over that way. I hate having to play a hand perfectly in order to get to where I need to go in a game, and I sure am not thrilled when my pard makes a bid forcing us into that position. Sounds like you did a real good job playing the hand.
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x MISSY x
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Post by x MISSY x » Fri Mar 16, 2007 6:30 pm

I would have bid 5..I dont see 8 even streaching my bid.. I see 5 maybe 6 tricks...Leaving open enough to bag the opponents...
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Dead Presidents
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Post by Dead Presidents » Sun Mar 18, 2007 7:46 pm

simply bid 5...you have four oppurtunities to give them 1 bag
Spades is a beautiful thing.

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Galt
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Post by Galt » Sun Mar 18, 2007 10:03 pm

The problem with a 5 bid is that you wind up ahead by only a few points at best. There are a lot of valuable points here for the taking, and you have to get as many of them as you can. Each 10 points that you can move ahead dramatically increases your chances of winning the game.

Your hand is extremely strong considering the bids at the table. Once you give East 2 tricks, you should pretty much be able to run the table.
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Re: Endgame question

Post by Nigella » Sun Nov 29, 2009 8:41 am

I know this thread has been addressed some time ago, however having just read the thread I cant believe why the cover bid only 1.Why did the cover not attempt a 4 bid for instance? or at least a 3 bid no less.

Even if the cover is set, they make +60 and 509
A four bid makes it much more difficult to bag them. At least bid three, if they were worried N/S could bid and make 13 tricks, it would not be enough for them to win.

I know this was not the focus question, but its interesting that for such an intense game (as stated) that East would miss what would appear such an easy position to potentially win the game.
It would have made the whole hand much more exciting I would have thought.
"Defusion is the disruptive infusion of new ideas"

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Galt
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Re: Endgame question

Post by Galt » Sun Nov 29, 2009 3:16 pm

The reason is very simple.

Only a small proportion of players bid and play according to the risk/reward presented by the game score as opposed to the cards in their hands.

It is way better now than it was 10 years ago when I became so exasperated that I wrote a book, but it is still a predominant problem.

10 years ago if you had suggested bidding 4 with a 1 trick hand you would have mostly gotten blank stares. Now, at least you see this kind of play occasionally in social games, and not all that infrequently in good league play.
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