Continuing the Count's example

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Post by the count24 » Fri Jan 09, 2004 6:28 am

It is hard to make profitable decisions on just a gut feeling. Hero's points are based on probability that will make the difference between winning and losing. Think about the reactions to the upcard and what the bid is, then you can get a good idea of what everyone is holding. If the Jd is the upcard that was turned down, you are next and call clubs thin and lead the Ad.....chances tend to be very slim that you will make it. In this scenario as hero pointed out, a good player will bid hearts on a bad holding like (Qh,10h,As,Kc,10d), then lead out hearts to see where they are. These plays are not sure things, but the odds say it's in your favour.
always play your best, and keep counting.....

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Post by duffer36 » Fri Jan 09, 2004 10:21 am

Odds and probabilities are all well and good, but nothing beats the ability to KNOW when you are gonna make it on a thin call. This is what I am speaking of, not just a gut feeling. I am talking about KNOWING even without a second thought, and without the killer hand. It doesn't come often, but when it comes it hits so hard it almost knocks me off the chair.

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Post by Gray Goose » Fri Jan 09, 2004 10:59 am

And that's the part we can't teach, duff. When someone experiences that for the very first time, they're hooked - pure and simple.

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Post by duffer36 » Fri Jan 09, 2004 12:38 pm

That's true, it can't be taught. But what can be taught is to have the FAITH to TRUST yourself when that feeling comes.

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Post by Gray Goose » Fri Jan 09, 2004 12:52 pm

Yep. I have a silly thing I do when I find I am not ordering up often enough.

I go offline and play with bots for a while. I order up every time it comes to me, whether I have a good hand or not. It teaches me to trust in my P for at least one trick and also teaches me to remember that you can make a point, even when your hand is less than perfect.

I said it was silly, but it works for me. It gives me confidence in my abilities to play, and encourages me to call trump.

I truly believe that if I do not call trump often, I do not win.

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Post by duffer36 » Fri Jan 09, 2004 12:58 pm

Gray Goose said:
I truly believe that if I do not call trump often, I do not win.
That is correct, you WON'T win unless you call, especially in a non-STD game.

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Post by Venture » Thu Jan 22, 2004 2:48 pm

duffer, it sounds to me like you're talking about intuition that doesn't come from real evidence.

you are NOT more likely to have a hunch that the cards you can't see favor you when you are right than when you are wrong. in other words, unless your hunch comes from REAL information and not feelings, it is WORTHLESS in euchre.

do you believe that God sends you messages about the cards, or that the information on the computer somehow leaks into your brain? because you must believe one or the other.

the only way having a hunch that you'll succeed will help you in euchre is if you play too pessimistically and the good feeling helps you play more aggressively and therefore, more optimally. i have a feeling that is the case here.

all card games with any strategy are information-based games. every card you see gives you information that you can use, along with information you have about the other players' styles, when making future decisions.

any decisions that you make based on blind faith will NOT help you in the long run.

i can prove this statistically if any of you want. ill set my calculator to produce random numbers between 1-2 and you can use your "intuition" to guess what number's coming 100 times. i PROMISE you that using math i can prove that your intuition did not help you (meaning that your intuitive choice produce results consistent with what can reasonably expected by random guesses).

and logically, if your intuition doesn't help you see random numbers, how does it help you see random cards?

go ahead and IM me at SephusFlavius and ill do the test and show you the math behind it.

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Post by duffer36 » Fri Jan 23, 2004 7:59 am

It can also be proven mathematically that a bumblebee cannot fly, yet it seems to do quite well last I looked.

Do I feel as though God is sending me a message about the cards? No, that thought is absurd. Have you ever heard of women's intuition? Basically same principle here. Sometimes you just KNOW when to call a certain thing, even though your cards don't show it. It comes more from playing with a regular partner than with a random partner.

Remember too, it is a very rare occurrence also. Not once a game, or even once a day for that matter. It's hard to explain, sometimes you just KNOW, without evidence, no matter your or anyone else's opinion. I think I'll stick to my feelings, I have done quite well so far, sorta like the bumblebee who can't fly.

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Post by Venture » Fri Jan 23, 2004 1:15 pm

it can't be proven mathematically that a bumblebee can't fly. it doesn't matter what you've heard about it. im not saying nobody's tried to prove it, im saying any such proof is obviously lacking.

if you just KNOW when to call a certain thing, especially with a certain partner, consider whether your knowledge actually comes from subtle evidence, rather than from no evidence at all. is this possible?

information does not just appear in your brain. if you're making a decision that does not come from something you've seen in the past, that's called a GUESS. like i said before, if you tend to succeed when you get these feelings it's because either A. you're actually validly reasoning at a subconscious level or B. you play better when you're confident.

but you seem generally confused about this, since you call using your intuition "the biggest tip of all" and then you say it doesn't work for you even "once a day."

maybe you have done well, but not as well as you would by making rational decisions and rational decisions alone. i'll say it again: making decisions in euchre that are not supported by real evidence/strategy will hurt you in the long run. trust the best player on hardwood. :wink:

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Post by duffer36 » Fri Jan 23, 2004 1:47 pm

Why do you think I seem confused? Sorry, but no Alzheimer's here just yet, and no senility either. You can continue to think as you do, and I'll keep thinking as I do. It is obvious that you have never had the feeling. Ask most any veteran player. They will say the same thing. Sometimes you just KNOW.

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Post by Venture » Fri Jan 23, 2004 1:52 pm

are you even reading? i said you seem confused because first you say intuition is the most important thing and then you say it helps you less often than once a day.

how about answering this question? is it possible that "just knowing" comes from a subconscious reasoning process? because either your knowledge comes from external information (which you say you don't have) or it's put there supernaturally (which you say it isn't). if it doesnt come from outside information or supernatural powers, it's called a guess.

you seem to misunderstand the fundamental nature of information. it does not just appear in your brain!

try to think about WHY you "just know." where does the feeling come from? it HAS to come from somewhere. nothing in the universe "just happens" with no source, cause, or reason. can you dispute that?

honestly, if you just said "God does it," that would be fine with me, because at least that's within the realm of possibility. It's infinitely more absurd to suggest that information comes from nowhere than to suggest that it comes supernaturally from God.

i'm not interested in anecdotal evidence from veteran players because even if everyone in the world believes in something that does not make it true. since what you believe is impossible, it cant be true, so what other players believe is irrelevant. my hypothesis would be that players are more likely to remember when their "premonitions" are correct than when they are wrong, while in reality they go either way arbitrarily. (or maybe the light calls just arent as big a risk as you think!)

...and sometimes i do get a "hunch" that one thing or another will happen, but i realize that unless i have a real REASON for this hunch it's just a guess.

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Post by Capt_MacLeod » Sat Jan 24, 2004 4:46 am

I'm with duffer on two counts. It has been proven by physics (wingspace to mass ratio, structure of wing) that a bumblebee (not a honeybee) is incapable of flight. Yet it does.

I also believe in hunches. Which is only a part of intuition. Being able to interpret who's holding what by what's being played is an intuitive process as well. Those who are good at it play sharper and harder.

This is going to sound ridiculous to you, as you seem to have a strong base in logic, but just because something can be proven, it doesn't necessarily exist. And the converse.
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Post by the count24 » Sat Jan 24, 2004 8:43 am

ESP vs other information to make a call..........good arguement that has been debated (lets just keep it friendly). I believe ESP can exist to a certain extent like when your phone rings and you "know" who it is. But it can also be argued that the only reason you know who it is because you know who would call you, the time of day, where the people are that you know, and other "factors" that may help you make a guess with extreme accuracy.

In my opinion, if anyone had ESP that was accurate enough to make profitable decisions they could make a living at craps or roulette. But I have never heard of a professional crap shooter or roulette player yet. All you would need is a "feeling" to overcome the house's 1.4% edge when you bet the passline and your set.

I believe that when someone makes this call by just "knowing" what other people and your partner is holding, they are taking in other "factors" towards their decision and in turn is a great call. Just like my phone example, you are making this "by just knowing call" with extreme accuracy; your brain figured out all the answers to the puzzle, but it works faster that you to know the steps it took to get there.
always play your best, and keep counting.....

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Post by Capt_MacLeod » Tue Jan 27, 2004 6:06 am

Thank you Count, you said it perfectly! Our minds generally process information faster than we can consciously comprehend it. Much like in sports, you do your best when you get into a "groove" and disengage thinking about it. Your mind deals with all of the inputs, and just "tells" you what to do. Taking the time to think about it only slows you down.

When you've got a strong hunch, you have full confidence that it is the right way to go. That's usually a sign that your mind has already determined it to be a strong choice, and is "backing your hunch".

Not every transparent bunny-rabbit is psychic.
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Post by omni_555 » Tue Jan 27, 2004 1:56 pm

I have taught courses in logig, mathematics and physics among others, and I can back up Capt_MacLeod's explanation of the bumble bee not being able to fly. We can do ALL sorts of things with numbers and so-called "scientific facts". Keep in mind that MANY things were held irrefutable for many years until they were proven incorrect. For example, it was believed that many illnesses were caused by something that the diseased person did to anger some Deity, later "bleeding" was an accepted "medical procedure" for curing almost any illness, from (what we know now as) viral infections, headaches, poinoning, allergic reactions, and so on. And don't forget for how long it was KNOWN that the sun revolved around the earth, that the earth was the ABSOLUTE center of the universe. Excellent scientific minds were imprisoned or even put to death because they DARED to suggest some of the things that we "know" today as facts.

So, I take a dim view of anyone saying that something is "impossible" just because they do not understand it. MAYBE there is something that will be discovered about the human brain sometime in the future that will explain occasional flashes of what we term "ESP". Several proposals have been put forth that suggest that time does not "flow" forwards or backwards, but is a stationary phenomenon, and they suggest that everything that we have ever experienced or will ever ewxperience is happening "right now". They further go on to postulate that these flashes of ESP that some people have are merely perceptions of "time leaks".

I do not hold with this theory, but I am open enough that if it were to be proven that I could accept it. My point is that EXPERIENCE has shown us that there IS something to this "hunch" or "intuition" that so many people occasionally rely on - some more than others. Some might dismiss it as mere coincidences, and MAYBE they are right. ...But MAYBE they are WRONG!!!

All I can say about this is that I have on several occasions (not NEARLY as often as I would LIKE!!!) done something that went TOTALLY against what I would logically do, just because I had a "hunch" or a "feeling", and it has turned out to be the right thing to do. Maybe the NEXT time I follow one of those hunches it will turn out to be disasterous, who knows... 8)
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