Galt wrote:The correct bid here is 8.
One should never bid more than needed to achieve the desired outcome.
If we bid 8 and make 8 we have a tie game.
If we bid 8 and make 9 we win.
I'm not sure if this has simply been overlooked, but the hand in question is third to act.
Given that important piece of information, I think that bidding 8 is excessive, and fails to meet your own guideline. Your argument is based on the assumption that the dealer will bid nil, but that doesn't make any sense. -- Why would the dealer bid nil, when it is a 13 bid, and bidding nil doesn't win the game? In this situation, the dealer is far more likely to bid 1 and attempt to set the 8 or the nil.
I think the winning bid is 4.
I realize this may seem counterintuitive, but you have an excellent chance of taking 9 tricks if the dealer bids nil. This requires a little clever manipulation. Since the dealer's team already has a 30 point advantage, bidding 4 makes it seem safe for him to bid nil. Given that the total table bid will only be 9, your 4 bid may fool your RHO into giving away a trick in hearts or clubs.
It is impossible to take 9 bags, and you win the game if you set the 5 bid.
(421 + 100 + 45= 566) vs (451 + 100 - 50= 501)
Bidding 1, 2, or 3 can also work. -- Anything other than 8 works, really.
The less you bid, the more options you give to the dealer. If you bid 1, the dealer can bid 3, or 4 to outbid you. I would love to find myself in that situation! :]